The Real Ordeal Post

A sports blog tackling topics one post at a time

18 Mar 2013

Bracketology

larkinLate March and early April kicks off arguably the best time of year for a sports fan. The NHL and NBA playoffs are right around the corner, the NFL Draft and Masters are on the horizon, and perhaps most exciting of all, March Madness. As I’m sure many are feverishly filling out their brackets, I thought I would share my picks and analysis for some of the selections. Feel free to tell me how wrong I am going to be or how ridiculous some of my choices are.

In last year’s tournament I correctly predicted that Kentucky would defeat Kansas in the finals, however, several other missteps along the way left my bracket looking a little messy. In 2012-13 there wasn’t a clear cut dominant team like the Wildcats throughout the season. At one point several #1 ranked teams were dropping like flies, making predicting this year’s tournament all the more challenging.

You can always expect a Cinderella team and an upset or two every year, but the trick is figuring them out before they occur. In this year’s tourney I think 11th seeded Belmont from the West Region has the potential to make some noise. In 2012-13 they moved up to the Ohio Valley Conference and were still able to win the regular season and conference tournament, while knocking out favourite Murray St. in the process. The Bruins were 15th in the nation in points per game and 4th in field goal percentage. I like them to upset Arizona in the first round.

An under the radar team that could do some damage is UNLV. Despite being a 5th seed in the East, they got matched up against California with the game being played in San Jose. The confusing logic of the NCAA aside, the Rebels have already beaten the Golden Bears once this season and rank in the top 10 in both rebounds and assists per game in 2012-13. I’ve got them making it through to the Sweet 16.

When looking at this year’s bracket it’s hard to ignore just how well the Big 10 is represented. You won’t find too many people around college basketball who won’t agree that it’s clearly the best conference at the moment. I have Michigan St. and Ohio St. joining Kansas in the Final Four, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to see other Big 10 schools like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana end up there as well. All of these teams are battle tested as every conference game this year seemed like it was a gruelling and low scoring affair.

The only reason I don’t have Indiana in the last four is because they ended up in the same region as Miami (FL), who I picked to win it all. It’s too bad the Hurricanes and Hoosiers were both slotted in the East because they just might be the two best teams right now. I’ll go with Miami since even though they won the regular season and conference tournament in the ACC, they were still snubbed for a #1 seed. This gives the Hurricanes a chip on their shoulder and perhaps in their mind, something to prove. Combine that with the fact that their head coach Jim Larranaga took George Mason on a stunning run to the Final Four in 2006, and Miami just may have the recipe for a national championship.

To view my entire bracket click here.

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23 Feb 2013

Fighting Father Time

jordanBirthdays are a time of reflection. A time where you get to think about all things that you have and haven’t done, or have yet to do. It’s an arbitrary point on the calendar that signifies another year has passed. There are those birthdays that tend to be more special than others. You know the ones that are supposed to symbolize a transition into a different point of your life. Like somehow when you turn 30 everything is going to all of a sudden be different than it was just a day earlier when you were 29.

That’s why when Michael Jordan turned 50 last week it created a minor stir. Mostly from fans who had the privilege of watching Jordan play in his prime. Realizing that the greatest player to ever play basketball was turning 50, probably caught a few people off guard. Jordan could do no wrong on the court and became a pop culture icon throughout the world. Seeing someone age that you grew up idolizing as a fan, isn’t the easiest thing to deal with.

The fact that he was turning 50 combined with a great narrative piece done by ESPN’s Wright Thompson last week, gave us a glimpse into the life of Jordan today. It’s not a view of Jordan that many would expect or even understand for that matter. For someone who earned the kind of money he did during his career and still earns today, one would think Jordan would be on a beach somewhere with his feet up basking in all he’s accomplished. Not so, however.

Thompson’s story takes us into the mind of Jordan, who seems extremely restless and lost. Despite being engaged and planning a move to Florida, Jordan is not at ease. Now the owner of the Charlotte Bobcats, who have been arguably the NBA’s most futile franchise in recent years, he clearly seems frustrated with the team’s inability to achieve success on the court. As good as Jordan was as a player leading the Chicago Bulls to six NBA titles, that success has not translated over into being an owner.

Not only that, but it is clear Jordan still misses playing the game. At one point he remarks that he would give up everything now to go back and play. Which makes you wonder why? Jordan has the aforementioned six NBA championships, two Olympic gold medals, plenty of money, and is unequivocally regarded as the best player to ever play.

One thing to consider is that retirement may be a much easier concept to conceive in an athlete’s mind, than to actually put into practice. What made Jordan so great was his ultra-competitive nature. He took the time to channel the different ways he perceived he was being slighted in his life and transferred that anger onto the basketball court. His Hall of Fame speech, which was more of a list of anyone who ever questioned him than a gracious look back at his career, was evidence of that.

Maybe it’s not so much the game athletes miss, but the competition and challenges it brings. Why else would someone like Jerry Rice be struggling to make the Denver Broncos at age 43 instead of enjoying an early retirement? Or why would Emmitt Smith go play two mediocre seasons in Arizona long after his glory days? Or why would Brett Favre not leave on his own terms and continue to play until no one else wanted him anymore? They probably all felt they still had something to prove.

Favre went from beloved blue-collar American Hero, to a player that many felt had stuck around far too long near the end of his career. He had made a living and reputation by playing the game with so much passion and energy, but became a grey-haired man just trying to overcome a body that was breaking down and injuries that were mounting. The image of Favre has been slightly tarnished in many fan’s minds because he didn’t stay retired. They want to remember him as a Packer and not trying to hang on with the Jets and Vikings.

Perhaps it’s just puzzling that athletes feel compelled to press on because we want to believe everything should have a ‘Walt Disney’ ending. Even if that isn’t realistic. Not everyone gets to go out like John Elway after winning two championships, and there are even some that still wouldn’t be satisfied leaving that way. It seems legacies are much more important to writers and fans than the athletes themselves. Or at least a player’s desire to compete often outweighs the importance of their own legacy.

The problem for Jordan, much like everyone, is he is in a constant battle with Father Time. Someone who is undefeated, and always will be. Some might feel it is courageous to take on a fight you can’t win, while others may think it’s stupid. Hearing rumblings that Jordan thinks he may still be able to play at 50 sounds absurd, but it’s his own choice if he wants to try. It’s that kind of combative personality that propelled him to such heights during his career. That’s hard to just shut off.

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07 Feb 2013

Joe Flacco has achieved ‘Elite’ Status……. Whatever that means

flaccoTo say Joe Flacco took a huge gamble prior to the start of the 2012 NFL season would be a major understatement. The now Super Bowl winning quarterback reportedly turned down a long-term contract from the Baltimore Ravens that would have paid him $16M a year. Flacco, to the shock of many who had seen him play on a regular basis, felt like he could get even more money if he waited to sign a long-term deal. In the end, Flacco appeared to know what he was talking about and is now looking at a potential $100M deal. He is certainly in line for a big pay raise, but how much better did he play this year? And more importantly, what did he really prove?

Let’s start off by saying Flacco’s play in the post-season was tremendous. He tied Joe Montana and Kurt Warner for the most touchdowns thrown in the playoffs with 11, and wasn’t intercepted once. Although his completion percentage was a very average 57.9%, he made use of big plays down the field and connected on several game changing scores with Jacoby Jones. Many argue, including ESPN’s Ron Jaworski, that Flacco has the strongest arm in the game today.

Despite the impressive play in the 2013 playoffs, this shouldn’t have come as a shock to too many people. Flacco has always performed well in January, or at the very least, given the Ravens a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl in recent years. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons, and holds the record for most road playoff wins by a quarterback as well.

Take last year’s AFC Championship game for example when the New England Patriots beat the Ravens. Flacco played well enough to win on that occasion, but Lee Evans dropped a sure touchdown pass and Billy Cundiff missed a routine game-tying field goal. All the press and accolades Flacco is receiving now could have just as easily happened last year.

NFL fans and media have a tendency to make a lot out of the results of one game or playoff run, when in reality it is a very small sample size. Quarterbacks are never really as good or as bad as we think they are. In actuality they are somewhere in the middle. When a team wins a big game we praise quarterbacks, and when they lose, we question where it all went wrong. Instead of looking at it rationally, we live on the peaks and valleys.

Let’s say Flacco didn’t connect with Jacoby Jones on that last-minute prayer that tied the game against the Denver Broncos. If it fell incomplete or was intercepted, which it easily could have, the Ravens probably would have lost that game. And would that have changed everyone’s opinion on Flacco? Probably, but it shouldn’t. That was just a few weeks ago and he is still the same guy.

My point is not to diminish what Flacco accomplished this season, but instead point out he was just as good last year, and the year before that. If you look at his numbers over the past four seasons they are remarkably similar. Since 2009 his season high for yardage has been 3,817, and his season low was 3,613. When it came to touchdowns his high was 25 with a low of 20. His interception high was 12 and his low was 10. That’s about as consistent as it gets in the NFL, but because he won two more playoff games in 2012 he is now all of a sudden considered elite.

If there was an actual class system for quarterbacks and the highest level was elite, would we then put Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson in that category? Or let’s not forget how close Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets came to getting to two Super Bowls a few years ago. Had the Jets won just two more games in either of their conference title years with Rex Ryan, would Sanchez have been considered elite? Of course not, because in all of those situations other factors like strong defenses were a crucial part of those teams.

On the flip side, is Dan Marino, who held most of pro football’s passing records until recently, when defensive backs could no longer even blow on a receiver without being flagged, not considered elite because he never won a championship? And of course there is Tony Romo, with stats vastly superior to Flacco’s and the majority of the other quarterback’s in the NFL, who is still struggling to win a signature game.

Legacies in the NFL are certainly complicated. I’m not sure how Eli Manning would be viewed if not for the heroics of David Tyree and Mario Manningham. He may very well be in the same position as Romo right now. However, now all of a sudden everyone is a spelling major and figured out you can’t spell elite without Eli.

Prior to last season, Manning was asked if he was in the same class as Tom Brady, and he responded that he was, which turned a few heads. Before the 2012 campaign Flacco made a similar statement about his game. Both quarterbacks then went on to win Super Bowls. I suppose it doesn’t really matter what anyone else thinks, as long as you have the confidence in yourself. Which I’m sure a guy like Romo definitely does.

Flacco has certainly proven his critics wrong, but sometimes it seems we get far too focused on the results as opposed to the journey. The same people who are revelling in the young talents of Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Robert Griffin III right now will probably be chastising them in a few years if they haven’t won a championship yet.

Whatever our definition of “elite” is, it is something that can’t be tangibly measured. It is an achievement that doesn’t matter to the players themselves, but only to those that have created the label in the first place.

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19 Jan 2013

The Next Big Swing

raonicIn case you have been living under a rock, or go to bed before 9pm Eastern Time, the Australian Open is now well underway. If you haven’t been following 2013’s first Major Tournament you probably missed out on hearing about Brad Gilbert’s pet peeves, seeing a John McEnroe like tantrum from Jerzy Janowicz, and a bunch of classic five setters in the unbearable heat.

This year’s draw on the Men’s side seems a little more up for grabs than normal. World number one Novak Djokovic is still clearly the favourite, but with Andy Murray’s victory at last year’s US Open, he has proven his doubters wrong and will be a legitimate title contender in every tournament going forward. Roger Federer, although still playing at an extremely high level, is no longer as unbeatable as he once was, and Rafael Nadal was forced to miss another tournament because of injury/illness issues.

For the past several years now the Men’s game has been ruled by those aforementioned top four players. They have clearly separated themselves from the others on tour. Sure someone like Tomas Berdych or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga would pickup an upset victory here and there, but could never follow it up with anything substantial. Or a guy like David Ferrer would threaten to break into the top four with a stretch of good play, but could never find enough consistency in his game to see it through.

If there was a ranking for fitness, however, Ferrer would win hands down. Ferrer is so fit he probably jogs five miles after his matches, swims about twenty laps as a cool down, and then goes out dancing after dinner. The man is a machine.

Unfortunately for Ferrer ATP points are not awarded for fitness, and that group of four has had his number over the years. Even still, how long will that last? Federer is now 31 and figures to be in his final years of play, and Nadal’s rugged playing style will almost certainly shorten his career. Djokovic and Murray would seem to be mainstays for years to come, but the door is open just a crack for some younger players to breakthrough in the near future.

Let’s look at a few who may possess the attributes to make some noise sooner rather than later.

Janko Tipsarevic #9 – Serbia

At 28-years-old, Tipsarevic isn’t exactly young by Tennis standards, but if he keeps playing the way he did in 2012 it won’t be long before he starts to challenge at a few more Majors. Tipsarevic has a pretty solid all around game and was one of just two players (Ferrer) who won at least 20 matches on both clay and hard courts last year. He also holds a victory over Djokovic in the quarterfinals at Madrid. The turning point in Tipsarevic’s career seemed to be in 2010 when he helped Serbia defeat France for its first Davis Cup title.

Defining Match – 2012 US Open QF loss to Ferrer

Tipsarevic lost this one in a fifth set tiebreaker, and it’s a good thing the US Open plays with tiebreakers in the fifth or these two guys could still be playing. This was a classic where both players went shot for shot, and Tipsarevic proved he could play with the world’s best on a big stage.

Juan Martin Del Potro #7 – Argentina

Del Potro won a career high 65 matches in 2012 and captured the Bronze Medal in London after defeating Djokovic. The Argentine has a big forehand and really looked like he was going to be here to stay after beating Federer in the 2009 US Open. A wrist injury, however, forced him to miss most of 2010 and he is just now rounding back into form. His victories over Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal in big matches prove he has the game to compete with the big boys.

Defining Match – 2009 US Open Final victory over Federer

Del Potro stunned Federer by erasing a 2-sets-to-1 deficit and winning the title. He became the first player to defeat both Nadal and Federer at a Major tournament.

Milos Raonic #15 – Canada

At just 22, the sky is the limit for the big Canadian. Raonic has arguably the best serve on tour and uses every bit of his 6-foot-5 frame to his advantage. He has been as high as number 13 in the world, but will need to find more consistency with his backhand to break into the top 10. Additionally, Raonic will also have to work extra hard on his footwork because he is so big. His lateral movement and approach to the net continue to hold him back from getting a signature win.

Defining Match – 2012 US Open 3rd Round victory over James Blake

This match may seem inconsequential, but it was an important step for Raonic’s development. He was in a similar position in the 2012 Aussie and lost in the third round to hometown hero Lleyton Hewitt. That was a match Raonic should have won, but seemed to crack under the pressure of playing a veteran player at their home tournament. At the US Open he was in the same spot against Blake, but dispatched of him easily in straight sets.

Kei Nishikori #18 – Japan

Nishikori is only 5-foot-10 and may be a long-shot to push for a top 10 spot right away, but he has shown enough flashes of brilliance to make many think it isn’t an impossibility. He has two career titles and is one of the better defensive players on tour. Due to his stature he will have to figure out a way to improve the power in his forehand and create more winners. Nishikori would do well to model his game after someone like Ferrer.

Defining Match – 2012 Australian Open 4th Round victory over Tsonga

Nishikori survived this five setter to beat Tsonga, who was ranked sixth in the world at the time. Once Nishikori was up a break in the fifth, he conserved his energy while Tsonga was serving in order to focus his strength on holding his own service games. The strategy proved sound, and Nishikori used his intelligence to help him defeat the Frenchman.

Alexandr Dolgopolov #20 – Ukraine

Dolgopolov has been as high as 13 in the world, but his inconsistency can be frustrating. At some events he looks to be making strides towards being a top 10 player, and then the next week he struggles to escape the first round. The Ukrainian can cover a ton of court, but needs to find more control on his shots and avoid unforced errors. At 24, there is still plenty of time to get things turned around, and if he hits his potential, Dolgopolov will be a guy many players will not want to see in their portion of the draw at Majors.

Defining Match – 2011 Australian Open QF loss to Murray

Dolgopolov was not ranked in the top 32 during this tournament yet still made it all the way to the quarter finals. After beating Tsonga in the fourth round, he managed to take a set off of Murray in the quarters.

Ryan Harrison #62 – USA

With Andy Roddick now retired, the United States could be looking at 20-year-old Ryan Harrison to become their next star. The youngster has had some tough luck with opponents recently in Majors, and in 2012 all four of his losses at Grand Slams came to top 15 ranked players. In fact, Harrison lost to number one ranked Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2012 and at this year’s Australian Open. If he can control his outbursts and fiery temper, Harrison will have a chance to break into the top 20, potentially by the end of the year. If he doesn’t, however, it won’t be for lack of effort. Harrison is regarded as one of the hardest workers on tour.

Defining Match – 2010 US Open 1st Round victory over Ivan Ljubicic

Harrison was only 18 at the US open in 2010 and impressively beat a top 15 player in Ljubicic. He nearly advanced to the third round, but lost a tough five setter to Sergiy Stakhovsky. Nevertheless, he proved at a young age that he has a bright future.

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01 Jan 2013

New York Giants Leading A Double Life

nydailynewsThe holidays are all about food, family, and if you are anything like me, catching up on season two of Homeland. The combination of Sunday Night Football and the fact that I don’t have HBO or Showtime, means a lot of quality TV watching after shows have already aired. I’ve also become quite adept at dodging other people’s comments on Twitter that may spoil the results of the program.

If you watch the show you know Sgt. Nicholas Brody is a marine turned congressman who eventually becomes a double agent. He, much like the New York Giants, is leading a double life.

It was fitting for New York to crush the Philadelphia Eagles after getting dominated themselves the week prior. The Giants needed a victory and a lot of help in week 17 to sneak into this year’s playoffs. One of the teams they were hoping would help them out was the Detroit Lions. Of course relying on the Lions for anything other than sloppy undisciplined play should indicate just how fast things have gone south for the Giants this year. The Lions predictably lost, and with that New York’s season went up in smoke, with no one to blame but themselves.

If you root for the Giants, chances are you have been on the verge of a nervous breakdown many times around Christmas over the last decade, and not just because you are preparing festivities for a massive family gathering. It seems like almost annually the G-Men play a must-win game in week 16, making Tom Coughlin look like he is now about 147 in coaching years. When they find a way to come out on top, like last year against the New York Jets or in 2007 at the Buffalo Bills, solid playoff runs that resulted in Super Bowls have followed.

However, those Super Bowls can easily skew the perception we have of the Giants. Although they have won two titles in five years, they are far from the dominant franchises like the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Indianapolis Colts we have seen in recent years. Those squads are perennial contenders, while New York has missed the playoffs twice in-between championships and just seem to have the ability to get on a run from time to time.

As often as the Giants have won big games in recent memory, they have lost just as many. Their 2012 campaign has been eerily similar to their 2010 season. New York seemed playoff bound two years ago, but brutal losses to the Eagles and Green Bay Packers in weeks 15 and 16 respectively, ended their year. This season they forgot to show up against the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens in those very same weeks, which cost them a playoff spot.

The reason the Giants lead a double life is the fact that you can never really trust them and you never really know who they are. Are they the team that trounced both the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers earlier this season? Or are they the squad that didn’t look like they belonged on the same field recently as the Falcons and Ravens? You just never know.

The shocking thing isn’t the losses themselves, but the way New York loses games. Take the must-win game in week 16 against the Ravens for example. The Giants actually didn’t commit a single turnover and the Ravens had 92 yards in penalties to just 52 for New York. Yet the game was never in question and Baltimore won easily 33-14. The Giants just got beat plain and simple, in every aspect of the game. The Ravens had nearly double the time of possession and out-gained them by 347 yards. When you make careless mistakes at least you know how to fix them, when you just get out-competed in every which way, that’s a scary thing.

The other amazing thing about this New York squad is how quickly things fluctuate from good to bad. The aforementioned game where they put up 38 points on the Packers earlier this year was preceded by a loss against the Cincinnati Bengals, where it looked like the Giants offense may not make another first down all season.

New York was consistently inconsistent all year. The Giants, however, have developed their own type of inconsistency. If you compare their 9-7 campaign to the 8-8 year the Dallas Cowboys had, even though the results looked similar, the way both teams got there was vastly different. Dallas played 12 games that were decided by one possession, while less than half of New York’s games finished that way. The Cowboys were in most games right until the end and a lot of the Giants’ contests were pretty much over by halftime, regardless of what side of the score-line they were on.

On the surface this may seem like the Cowboys were the more consistent squad in 2012, but the Giants gave you more of a belief that they could contend. New York actually had victories over three division winners this year in the NFC, while Dallas beat just one team heading for the playoffs, the AFC’s sixth seeded Bengals. The Cowboys put themselves in a possession to win regularly, but never really gave you the confidence they were going to do anything of significance. The Giants on the other hand wouldn’t have shocked you if they won or lost by multiple touchdowns on most given weeks.

Many Giants fans and critics will say the organization needs to make changes in order to become more consistent, but why should they change the double life they are leading? Even the most consistent franchise in recent memory, New England, has just three titles in ten years, while New York has two in its last five. There are no guarantees. It seems like the recipe for success in the NFL is getting hot at the right time and having players that can step up in the clutch. The Giants have certainly proven they can do both of those.

You would be hard pressed to find any team that wouldn’t take a few December collapses, if they came with a couple of Super Bowl titles.

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17 Dec 2012

Bad Luck Bargnani

bargnaniIf the average basketball fan scanned the Toronto Raptors roster, they would probably need to have Wikipedia handy. It is a group of players that don’t really jump off the page at you. And the ones that are recognizable are probably standing out for the wrong reasons. A season that began with so much optimism now sees the Raptors at 6-19, while leaving fans and pundits searching for answers.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Not for a team that has had three top-five selections in the NBA Draft over the last decade.

Although Raptors fans would have liked to have seen him here longer, Chris Bosh was a franchise player and a perennial all-star in Toronto. His WWE like introduction with the Miami Heat may have rubbed Torontonians the wrong way, but his impact on the court can’t be denied. Bosh averaged 22-plus points a game for five of his seven seasons in Toronto, and added three years where he had 10-plus rebounds.

The combination of Bosh and 2006 first overall pick Andrea Bargnani were supposed to be the cornerstones of the Raptors for years to come. Bargnani, however, has never looked anything close to a number one pick, and has had major trouble finding an identity. Is he a big and rangy shooter that can hit the outside jump shot? Or can he use his seven-foot frame to dominate down low? So far in his career he has appeared to be neither. In only one pro season has Bargnani averaged more than 20 points a game, and his career rebounding average is less than five per contest. Not to mention that having a less than one block per game average for a seven-footer is atrocious. Too bad helping move delicious Primo Pasta off Toronto supermarket shelves isn’t an NBA stat.

To say the Raptors chose Bargnani first overall in the 2006 draft is a little misleading. The better word may be “stuck”. In arguably the weakest draft class in the last ten years, Toronto was forced to take Bargnani, who was the best of the bunch at the time. In fact, four of the top ten players taken in 2006, Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Patrick O’Bryant, and Saer Sene, are no longer in the NBA. And if you discount Brandon Roy because of his knee issues, only two players from the top ten that year, Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge, have had significantly serviceable careers so far.

2006 Top 5 Players Selected

Andrea Bargnani – Toronto Raptors

LaMarcus Aldridge – Portland Trail Blazers

Adam Morrison – Charlotte Bobcats

Tyrus Thomas – Chicago Bulls

Shelden Williams – Atlanta Hawks

In other words, the Raptors had the bad luck of being terrible at the wrong time. Should they have had the number one pick in any other year over the last decade, then the state of the franchise right now would be much different. Have a look at the top five players selected from every other draft since 2003.

2003

LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers

Darko Milicic – Detroit Pistons

Carmelo Anthony – Denver Nuggets

Chris Bosh – Toronto Raptors

Dwyane Wade – Miami Heat

2004

Dwight Howard – Orlando Magic

Emeka Okafor – Charlotte Bobcats

Ben Gordon – Chicago Bulls

Shaun Livingston – Los Angeles Clippers

Devin Harris – Dallas Mavericks

2005

Andrew Bogut – Milwaukee Bucks

Marvin Williams – Atlanta Hawks

Deron Williams – Utah Jazz

Chris Paul – New Orleans Hornets

Raymond Felton – Charlotte Bobcats

2007

Greg Oden – Portland Trail Blazers

Kevin Durant – Seattle SuperSonics

Al Horford – Atlanta Hawks

Mike Conley – Memphis Grizzlies

Jeff Green – Boston Celtics

2008

Derrick Rose – Chicago Bulls

Michael Beasley – Miami Heat

OJ Mayo – Minnesota Timberwolves

Russell Westbrook – Seattle SuperSonics

Kevin Love – Memphis Grizzlies

2009

Blake Griffin – Los Angeles Clippers

Hasheem Thabeet – Memphis Grizzlies

James Harden – Oklahoma City Thunder

Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings

Ricky Rubio – Minnesota Timberwolves

2010

John Wall – Washington Wizards

Evan Turner – Philadelphia 76ers

Derrick Favors – New Jersey Nets

Wesley Johnson – Minnesota Timberwolves

DeMarcus Cousins – Sacramento Kings

2011

Kyrie Irving – Cleveland Cavaliers

Derrick Williams – Minnesota Timberwolves

Enes Kanter – Utah Jazz

Tristan Thompson – Cleveland Cavaliers

Jonas Valanciunas – Toronto Raptors

2012

Anthony Davis – New Orleans Hornets

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – Charlotte Bobcats

Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards

Dion Waiters – Cleveland Cavaliers

Thomas Robinson – Sacramento Kings

It’s pretty evident that if the Raptors chose first in any one of those other years they would be in a much better position. That of course is assuming they could have retained the player they selected long-term. That has been another challenge facing Canada’s only NBA team. With Steve Francis famously refusing to play for the Vancouver Grizzlies, Antonio Davis’ on again, off again love affair with the metric system, Vince Carter and Chris Bosh wanting to seek greener pastures, and a scary tax system for Americans, many players seem to have a negative perception of Toronto and Canada.

The Raptors will need to change that if they hope to compete. You need a superstar in the NBA to win more than you do in any other major pro sports league in North America, and here’s why. If you take the top ten players in minutes played in the NBA in 2012-13 and average out their court time, you get 38.8 minutes per game. That accounts for nearly 81% of a 48 minute contest. Compare that to the NHL where your average ice-time leaders are playing below 50% of the game, the NFL where offensive and defensive players are only out on the field about 50% of the time, and baseball where you average about four at bats and are in the field for the other 50% of the game. An impact player is so crucial in the NBA just for the sheer amount of time they are out on the floor.

Look at LeBron James’ situation for a minute. Forget about what he did upon arriving in Miami, but instead look at how his departure hurt the Cleveland Cavaliers. In 2009 the Cavaliers were 61-21 in LeBron’s final season in Cleveland. The next year the Cavs went 19-63.

Toronto obviously doesn’t have anyone even close to LeBron. In most years a number one draft pick would almost assure a big-time player was headed your way. Not in 2006, however, when they acquired Bargnani. Jonas Valanciunas is the next hope for Raptors fans. Even if that optimism may be a little naïve.

The Raptors have just five post-season appearances, one playoff series victory, and one division title in their history. They were at their most effective when they had Carter or Bosh in a starring role, but have still lacked to find that franchise player that wants to commit to the city long-term. It was supposed to be Bargnani, but that ship has sailed. Until they find that player, mediocrity will reign in Toronto.

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30 Nov 2012

How can the Kansas City Chiefs be this bad?

chiefsIf you were writing an essay on who the worst National Football League team is today, it would probably be the easiest A you ever got. It would be hard to argue that it’s anyone else, but the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are 1-10 and it took them the better part of the season just to gain a lead. They seemingly find new ways to lose every week, and there are few signs of things turning around anytime soon.

What’s puzzling, however, is that on closer inspection the Chiefs seem like they should be doing much better. Well, at least not 1-10. There are some pieces in place and numbers that suggest they shouldn’t be one of the league’s bottom feeders.

They have lost two games by just a field goal, to the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, and another to the Denver Broncos by just one possession. The Ravens and Broncos are two of the AFC’s elite teams and the Steelers are fighting for a playoff spot. Strong efforts in these games are hard to read because many teams play up and down to the level of their competition.

The Chiefs do have some talent on their roster though, and it starts at the top. Coach Romeo Crennel and general manager Scott Pioli come from the Bill Belichick coaching tree and were key contributors in the New England Patriots three Super Bowl victories in the early 2000′s. Of course Belichick and Tom Brady had a little something to do with that as well, but if you were trying to turn a franchise around it seems you couldn’t ask for too many better guys than Crennel and Pioli.

Now let’s look at the roster. Running back Jamaal Charles is closing in on a 1,000 yard season and ranks in the top ten in rushing in 2012. In fact, the Chiefs are in the top five when it comes to rushing yards per game. Charles is also less than two years removed from a campaign where he ran for nearly 1,500 yards.

Derrick Johnson is one of the more underrated linebackers in football and is coming of a 2011 year where he made the Pro Bowl and was named 1st team All-Pro. He currently ranks in the top 15 in tackles this year.

Receiver Dwayne Bowe hasn’t had less than 1,100 yards receiving since 2009, and over the last two and a half seasons he has compiled 23 touchdowns. Bowe seems to have a connection with Matt Cassel who seems to be a serviceable quarterback when healthy. His last complete season without injury in 2010, he threw for over 3,000 yards and 27 touchdowns with just seven interceptions.

Still not convinced the Chiefs should be doing better? Well have a look at these stats. Kansas City currently does not rank in the bottom ten in the NFL in any of the following categories.

Offense: Average yards per game, average rushing yards per game, 1st downs per game, 3rd downs converted, 3rd down percentage, 4th down percentage, time of possession

Defense: Average yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, total tackles

Conversely, in each of the above listed categories at least one team that is currently sitting in a playoff spot ranked in the bottom ten.

Although the Chiefs are in the middle of the pack when it comes to the aforementioned statistics, they did sit near the bottom in two important areas. Penalties and turnovers. They ranked in the bottom ten when it came to penalties and dead last in turnover differential with a minus-21 rating. In fact the next closest team, the Philadelphia Eagles, are only at minus-14.

So maybe football purists are right. Penalties and turnovers can cost you games. They sure don’t help matters that’s for sure. Or maybe it’s fate and some teams are just destined to lose. It could be a play or two here and there that are costing Kansas City games. Jon Gruden said earlier this week on Monday Night Football that the difference between 10-6 and 6-10 is about a half-dozen plays throughout the season. In 2012, it appears that the Chiefs are on the wrong end of those plays.

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14 Nov 2012

Why We Hate NFL Ties

There is something strangely compelling about a tie game in the National Football League. Not so much the tie itself, but all the events leading up to it in the final stages of the game. Ties in the NFL are about as rare as an aggressive Marty Schottenheimer play call, and the game on Sunday between the St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers that ended 24-24 was the first since 2008.

That last game in 2008 was the famous contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals where Donovan McNabb admitted he didn’t know you could tie. Apparently a few players on Sunday felt the same way. Rams receiver Danny Amendola told SI’s Peter King that he expected there would be a second overtime.

If the players aren’t aware of the rules then the coaches certainly are. It’s always fun to watch the play calling when the overtime session gets down to about two minutes left. It seems teams never know when to be conservative or push the ball down field. You want to try to win, but you don’t want to lose either. Especially in a divisional game. A tie could be just as good as a win potentially when it comes to the standings in December, but by the same token it could be like a loss. Let’s say the Rams are tied for a Wild Card spot with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after 16 games. If Tampa sits at 9-7 and St. Louis is 9-6-1, then the Rams go to the playoffs. However, if the Rams finish 8-7-1, then the Bucs sneak in. It may seem insignificant now, but it could be a major factor down the stretch.

The fact is nobody really wanted to win this game. The normally reliable David Akers missed a relatively easy 41-yard game winning kick. Then the Rams seemed so confident in Greg Zuerlein’s leg that they completely shut down their offense as they approached field goal range, and for good measure took a delay of game penalty just to turn a 53-yard attempt into a 58-yard kick. Zuerlein promptly missed of course.

The problem with ties is there is nothing to talk about for fans and journalists when the game is done. Every week in the NFL is a life changing experience for both teams playing each other. Whoever wins must be on the right track and is moving in the right direction, and whoever loses is in dire straits and needs to make changes fast. In reality, the difference between the two is often a kick that just went a couple of yards in one direction or another.

Here’s what you would have heard on every post game show if Akers hit that kick in OT:

“Boy the 49ers really rallied after losing Alex Smith to an injury didn’t they? I mean Colin Kaepernick made some big plays with his legs to extend drives and had that offense moving. Again the Rams just couldn’t close out a divisional opponent on the road and Jeff Fisher doesn’t seem to have his stamp on this team quite yet.”

Now here is what would have been said if Zuerlein’s 53-yarder in OT stood:

“This was a statement game for the Rams. Jeff Fisher really has this team turning a corner and going into San Fransisco and putting up those kind of points against that defense was impressive. Sam Bradford has been playing some good football in recent weeks and you can consider the Rams a Wild Card contender down the stretch.”

Instead we got nothing because of the tie. Nobody knows what to say. Who is in trouble? Who is moving in the right direction? What does this mean for momentum going into next week? Who has to rebound?

Maybe ties are actually good for the game in some ways. Football is not black and white, and nobody is that good or that bad based on the outcome of one game. The true identity of a team is probably somewhere closer to the middle of the spectrum. Ties introduce shades of grey and forces us to think outside the box a little more, which isn’t always a bad thing.

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03 Nov 2012

Lakers off to Rough Start

You would think King Kong was wreaking havoc in downtown Los Angeles the way people are panicking every which way you turn. Nope. The Lakers are simply 0-3 to start the 2012-13 season. Every time a team acquires a couple of big name free agents – exhibit A the Miami Heat – you can expect one of two things.

1) They will be predicted to win 70-plus games, which is totally unrealistic and has only happened once prior. (The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls) The disparity between teams these days in the Association is simply not that far off, and 70 games is going to be hard to duplicate.

2) Every non-Lakers fan will be rooting extremely hard for them to fail, even if they are not anti-Lakers per say. Before the Heat grabbed LeBron James and Chris Bosh, they were one of the least polarizing teams in the NBA. Once the Big Three was assembled, then everyone and their grandmother had an opinion on South Beach. And it nothing to do with it being a great vacation spot.

The first thing the naysayers said about the Dwight Howard deal is that he can’t make free throws. And sure enough that didn’t take long to rear its ugly head. In the opener Howard went just 3-of-14 from the charity stripe. That’s bad. That’s Shaquille O’Neal is his hack-a-Shaq days bad. Heck, that’s me in grade five bad. Apparently his bad free-throw shooting spread through the Lakers like the common cold, as the team went just 12-of-31 from the line for a 38% rate. They Lakers lost by eight and it would be hard not to look at the missed free-throws as the deciding factor.

Just one night later against the Portland Trail Blazers, Howard pulled it together and made 15-of-19 free throws and the Lakers as a whole were a solid 26-for-32 from the line. The problem this night was the next thing critics said about Los Angeles, they have no bench. Take a look at this ugly stat against the Blazers. The Lakers starters were a respectable combined plus-23 when they were out on the floor, but their bench was an atrocious minus-73. Now part of the fact was that Steve Nash left the game early with an injury, but when guys like Jordan Hill are minus-20 and Antawn Jamison is minus-21, you got problems. Howard better figure out how to avoid foul trouble quickly and good luck trying to rest Kobe Bryant here and there to keep him fresh for the playoffs Mike Brown.

Perhaps the worst of all has been the Lakers defense in the first three games. Their transition D is awful and their half-court D isn’t great. Now that I think about it, I don’t really know what other defense there is. The scariest part is that Steve Nash hasn’t played much yet and he is probably one of the worst defenders on the team. He hasn’t even averaged a steal per game in his career, so it’s tough to envision how things will get better in that area. By the way, saying he is one of the worst defenders is probably being generous.

The Lakers are giving up an average of 106 points a game so far in 2012-13 and they had no answer for the Clippers in Los Angeles’ version of the battle of the tenants last night. It probably didn’t help that they committed 19 turnovers, which is their season average, as the Clippers rolled to an easy ten point victory.

Another thing the Lakers don’t have going for them is this Princeton offense. I’m not saying it’s not going to work, but the way it’s being perceived right now is adding to the problems. I mean Princeton isn’t exactly the Mecca of basketball. They would have been better off calling it the Duke offense, North Carolina offense, or even the Loyola Marymount offense for that matter. It’s basically the equivalent of an NFL team saying their learning the “Savannah St.” or the “Ohio Dominican” offense. Not exactly the best PR move.

The reality is the Lakeshow are now 0-3, and since the NBA is not the NHL, there will still be 79 games to play. It’s not time to panic just yet. Alarmed maybe, but not panic. This Lakers squad has an eery feel to it and kind of reminds me of that 2003-04 team when they added Gary Payton and Karl Malone. The team was good and did get to the NBA Finals, but never really felt like a true team. Something was just off.

One could easily argue that the Lakers simply haven’t had time to gel with all the injuries they have endured. It certainly will take some time for this team to come together. However, it is now glaring that they are 0-11 as a unit when you combine the preseason. With all the talent on the roster you would think they would have won at least a couple of games by accident.

In the summer everyone was asking how many games this Lakers squad could win. Now all people are wondering is when will they get their first.

Posted in NBA | Leave a Comment
18 Oct 2012

Battle of the Comebacks

Why, as sports fans, do we love comebacks so much? Perhaps it’s simply that in life we always like to root for the underdog. Well this week we were bestowed with two of the better comebacks you will ever see.

The first happened on Monday night when the Denver Broncos trailed the San Diego Chargers 24-0 at the half, yet rallied to score 35 answered points. No team had ever trailed by that many points to then go one and win the game by double digits. In the second half Peyton Manning looked like 2004 Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers looked like 2011 Philip Rivers. Chargers coach Norv Turner had a look on his face like someone just told him Honey Boo Boo deserved an Emmy.

Then just a day later, Sweden came from 4-0 down to tie Germany right at the final whistle in a World Cup 2014 Qualifying match. They scored four times in the final 30-plus minutes to complete the comeback.

While both were impressive comebacks, I’m going to say Sweden’s was better for a few reasons. 1) Goals are harder to come by in soccer than an Alex Rodriguez postseason hit 2) It came against Germany who is the second ranked nation in the world. 3) All four goals were clinical highlight reel finishes. 4) Being down 4-0 in soccer is probably the equivalent to trailing 8-0 in hockey, 12-0 in baseball, 30 points in basketball, and 40-plus points in football.

Posted in NFL, Soccer and tagged , , , , , , | Leave a Comment

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